* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 124 127 128 127 124 119 111 103 90 74 57 V (KT) LAND 115 120 124 127 128 127 124 119 111 53 35 29 28 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 8 10 10 13 14 22 17 23 24 34 45 SHEAR DIR 258 164 178 213 235 208 208 211 236 243 283 251 275 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.6 25.7 23.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 151 116 100 94 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.5 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -48.9 -48.5 -48.0 -48.9 -49.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 10 11 7 10 7 10 5 4 0 500-300 MB RH 51 51 52 49 46 46 45 42 42 40 37 41 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 4 2 10 -4 0 5 850 MB VORT 68 69 70 69 60 60 54 66 35 11 40 -12 -56 LAND (KM) 230 312 324 350 399 412 329 173 1 -200 -404 -586 -759 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.5 26.3 27.3 28.7 30.4 32.5 34.5 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.5 87.6 88.7 89.7 91.8 93.6 94.9 95.9 96.7 97.2 96.9 95.9 HEAT CONTENT 71 65 78 67 36 58 35 42 36 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 623 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 95 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 3. -1. -7. -16. -29. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 6. -2. -11. -23. -39. -57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 13. 12. 9. 4. -4. -12. -25. -41. -58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.21 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.4% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)