* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 86 78 69 53 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 94 86 78 69 53 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 18 21 24 23 32 41 51 46 48 44 30 SHEAR DIR 233 224 213 217 229 218 205 209 219 228 235 244 307 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 26.0 25.9 25.2 23.9 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 126 125 125 124 123 126 125 118 104 70 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -53.6 -55.1 -55.2 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 500-300 MB RH 34 29 27 30 30 28 35 42 52 57 60 66 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 3 0 -3 2 0 25 20 5 11 25 -9 2 850 MB VORT 90 81 80 77 67 46 45 25 31 7 -19 -57 -120 LAND (KM) 905 849 793 736 683 589 532 559 656 893 1174 1564 1777 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.1 21.4 23.4 25.7 28.5 31.4 35.4 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.0 147.4 147.9 148.3 149.2 150.1 151.2 152.4 153.1 153.3 153.7 154.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 682 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -30. -34. -36. -39. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -23. -28. -36. -44. -53. -61. -65. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -27. -41. -54. -66. -79. -92.-104.-116.-126. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -14. -22. -31. -47. -61. -73. -86. -97.-109.-120.-129. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 2.46 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)