* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 39 36 33 30 30 32 34 35 34 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 39 36 33 30 30 32 34 35 34 SHEAR (KTS) 21 26 24 18 17 18 17 19 8 6 1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 50 55 64 67 66 64 60 81 94 131 214 249 224 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 135 133 131 128 124 121 119 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 500-300 MB RH 49 49 48 46 45 47 50 49 39 34 31 23 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -5 -4 -2 0 0 6 10 -3 0 -2 -1 1 850 MB VORT 18 14 11 13 9 22 54 76 99 108 123 114 97 LAND (KM) 2338 2335 2332 2330 2329 2284 2222 2153 2086 2024 1955 1845 1706 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.2 132.4 132.6 132.9 133.1 133.6 134.1 134.6 135.1 135.6 136.2 137.2 138.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -20. -18. -16. -15. -16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.03 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)