* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 6 5 10 12 10 8 5 5 11 8 9 SHEAR DIR 341 11 38 359 5 38 22 41 1 211 303 301 293 SST (C) 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 103 102 101 99 98 97 97 99 103 107 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 38 35 32 25 22 24 25 24 32 33 39 35 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -6 -1 850 MB VORT 32 41 37 28 13 9 0 11 29 31 47 59 62 LAND (KM) 897 914 934 974 1016 1087 1190 1306 1420 1552 1674 1808 1927 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.3 20.9 20.6 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.2 121.6 122.2 122.7 123.6 124.7 126.0 127.3 128.6 129.7 131.0 132.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -21. -20. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -21. -30. -38. -44. -46. -47. -47. -46. -44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -20. -26. -36. -43. -48. -48. -46. -45. -44. -45. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 23.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 1.78 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)