* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 39 42 48 54 58 62 67 70 70 65 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 39 42 48 54 58 62 67 70 70 65 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 12 15 18 23 25 35 42 48 53 61 63 SHEAR DIR 275 252 243 219 208 239 226 252 247 243 240 238 259 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 27.4 25.6 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 164 157 134 115 111 110 108 104 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -53.1 -52.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.6 -55.0 -57.0 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 4 1 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 67 70 72 73 69 63 64 53 57 55 49 48 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 7 3 0 0 4 8 35 26 11 1 3 -57 850 MB VORT 101 109 103 120 122 102 107 35 67 33 26 35 -51 LAND (KM) 939 959 992 1028 1081 1227 1475 1309 1122 968 953 965 911 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.9 25.1 27.2 30.1 33.2 35.9 38.0 39.2 40.7 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.3 57.4 57.8 58.2 58.6 58.9 58.2 56.0 52.3 47.4 44.4 43.2 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 60 53 50 29 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 21. 25. 29. 31. 31. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -1. 2. 8. 14. 18. 22. 27. 30. 30. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.11 Scaled RI index= 3.65 Prob of RI= 7.5% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)