* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 136 140 142 142 137 131 122 109 95 80 62 45 V (KT) LAND 130 136 140 142 142 137 131 122 68 40 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 10 8 10 16 22 24 21 30 28 37 35 SHEAR DIR 240 172 210 228 221 209 205 224 221 266 270 270 283 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 27.3 24.6 23.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 133 107 98 95 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -48.8 -49.1 -47.0 -48.4 -48.8 -49.2 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 10 11 9 9 6 9 6 8 4 5 500-300 MB RH 54 56 51 47 48 41 41 43 42 37 37 37 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 -5 -2 -1 6 15 14 1 -4 -2 -6 850 MB VORT 77 82 71 65 72 54 79 48 39 13 41 -18 -45 LAND (KM) 286 322 337 393 434 383 227 61 -114 -285 -485 -613 -709 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.2 26.0 27.0 28.2 29.7 31.4 33.4 34.8 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 87.4 88.5 89.5 90.4 92.5 94.3 95.6 96.3 96.8 97.1 96.8 96.1 HEAT CONTENT 68 78 68 48 20 58 43 40 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 85 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -4. -11. -20. -33. -48. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -2. -1. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 4. -2. -10. -22. -35. -48. -66. -83. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 12. 12. 7. 1. -8. -21. -35. -50. -68. -85. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.23 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)