* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 82 72 62 46 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 92 82 72 62 46 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 19 23 26 28 38 48 57 51 46 30 23 SHEAR DIR 235 235 228 235 233 212 215 211 222 235 241 272 318 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.0 25.5 24.6 22.3 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 126 125 125 124 124 126 121 112 88 64 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -54.7 -55.9 -57.0 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 28 27 28 30 28 31 36 42 52 56 65 58 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -4 0 0 0 6 -4 16 2 -4 12 -33 850 MB VORT 86 79 74 65 58 45 27 27 16 -6 -63 -82 -144 LAND (KM) 845 793 743 684 628 541 530 610 774 1044 1401 1828 1504 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.8 22.5 24.6 27.1 30.1 33.8 38.0 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.4 147.8 148.3 148.8 149.8 150.8 151.7 152.6 153.3 153.7 154.0 154.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 691 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -30. -34. -37. -39. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -26. -34. -44. -53. -62. -67. -69. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -28. -42. -57. -71. -86. -99.-113.-123.-131. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -18. -28. -38. -54. -69. -83. -95.-107.-119.-128.-136. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 2.10 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)