* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 36 33 30 29 29 31 33 34 34 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 36 33 30 29 29 31 33 34 34 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 18 19 20 19 18 12 9 8 5 7 9 SHEAR DIR 56 63 64 61 61 63 72 91 92 152 175 190 198 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 135 133 131 130 129 127 125 121 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 500-300 MB RH 48 45 44 45 46 45 46 42 39 31 25 23 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 -2 1 1 3 7 3 1 0 -2 -1 0 850 MB VORT 4 -2 -2 -4 -7 30 50 75 91 120 118 131 130 LAND (KM) 2313 2282 2251 2225 2198 2146 2095 2036 1955 1873 1780 1725 1694 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 133.6 133.8 134.0 134.2 134.4 134.8 135.2 135.7 136.4 137.1 137.9 138.4 138.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 567 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. -12. -11. -11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.05 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.54 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 2.00 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)