* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 2 7 8 6 6 4 2 8 7 7 11 SHEAR DIR 20 55 20 10 18 49 49 38 357 251 287 277 281 SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 103 102 101 99 98 97 97 98 102 106 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 34 32 27 24 24 23 22 25 29 28 27 27 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 850 MB VORT 41 30 16 6 9 11 -2 18 27 45 31 39 40 LAND (KM) 908 935 963 997 1031 1110 1213 1304 1399 1511 1650 1779 1885 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.0 20.8 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.5 122.0 122.5 122.9 123.8 124.9 125.9 127.0 128.2 129.5 130.8 131.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 567 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -28. -35. -40. -42. -43. -43. -42. -41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -18. -23. -31. -37. -41. -42. -40. -39. -39. -41. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 2.01 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)