* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 54 58 59 59 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 54 58 59 59 58 56 52 SHEAR (KTS) 23 15 13 10 8 4 10 13 18 17 26 34 33 SHEAR DIR 88 88 92 89 90 92 98 104 104 121 95 104 96 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 152 152 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 500-300 MB RH 74 75 73 71 70 68 59 60 57 63 65 69 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 4 4 3 850 MB VORT 25 36 43 51 57 66 67 69 61 67 58 70 67 LAND (KM) 743 767 798 815 836 877 932 1000 1037 1067 1103 1141 1189 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.6 108.3 108.9 109.5 110.6 111.6 112.5 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.6 115.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 535 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 100 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 29. 33. 34. 34. 33. 31. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.21 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 3.80 Prob of RI= 23.8% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)