* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 46 50 57 63 67 70 74 73 71 63 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 46 50 57 63 67 70 74 73 71 63 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 16 17 18 25 28 29 42 47 63 63 50 SHEAR DIR 249 243 231 219 231 235 239 254 251 243 244 255 290 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 27.9 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.7 24.5 23.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 162 159 141 121 114 109 108 106 101 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -53.8 -55.2 -55.7 -58.7 -59.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 3 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 69 71 71 71 68 67 59 61 55 51 39 39 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 6 0 1 3 10 15 1 0 -19 -6 -17 -79 850 MB VORT 113 108 114 116 108 106 67 81 72 56 1 -40 -123 LAND (KM) 992 1027 1079 1149 1231 1421 1389 1224 1160 1005 930 977 1100 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.6 26.8 29.3 32.1 34.3 36.0 37.8 39.7 41.7 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.3 57.5 57.8 58.0 58.5 59.0 57.7 54.7 50.9 46.8 43.0 39.7 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 51 42 33 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 495 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 89 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 35. 32. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 34. 33. 31. 23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.98 Prob of RI= 11.5% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)