* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 154 154 150 144 129 116 103 82 63 48 28 DIS V (KT) LAND 150 154 154 150 144 129 116 76 42 32 28 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 9 15 18 20 25 22 28 26 30 40 50 SHEAR DIR 205 199 207 210 199 195 200 235 248 265 256 268 282 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 27.2 25.4 24.8 23.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 132 114 109 99 92 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -49.1 -49.2 -49.2 -47.7 -46.9 -46.5 -47.7 -48.2 -49.5 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 11 11 8 9 5 10 5 7 0 1 500-300 MB RH 56 51 47 47 45 40 41 39 34 34 35 33 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 3 2 -1 2 3 6 1 -7 -2 -5 0 6 850 MB VORT 83 85 85 78 81 84 88 58 54 69 34 -36 -59 LAND (KM) 333 344 378 416 367 348 126 -98 -281 -408 -438 -599 -847 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.4 25.8 26.5 27.9 29.7 31.5 32.8 33.4 35.0 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.9 88.9 90.0 91.0 93.0 94.6 95.9 96.6 96.7 95.9 95.5 95.1 HEAT CONTENT 71 82 67 27 78 35 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 83 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -10. -20. -35. -52. -68. -84. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -7. -11. -19. -26. -28. -28. -29. -27. -25. -22. PERSISTENCE 4. 3. 0. -3. -9. -8. -5. -8. -5. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -2. -9. -25. -37. -49. -69. -87.-101.-120.-138. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 4. 0. -6. -21. -34. -47. -68. -87.-102.-122.-140. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 30.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 4.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.07 Prob of RI= 12.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)