* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 80 68 58 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 91 80 68 58 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 21 28 25 34 40 47 48 47 43 30 12 SHEAR DIR 238 234 233 232 227 221 212 221 235 243 251 265 300 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 26.0 25.8 25.2 24.3 22.0 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 125 125 124 123 126 124 118 108 84 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -53.7 -54.7 -55.6 -56.9 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 0 500-300 MB RH 27 29 30 28 31 47 43 48 47 51 49 49 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -3 0 -2 -1 10 18 22 3 2 -19 7 18 850 MB VORT 87 76 65 57 54 26 32 27 3 -19 -72 -150 -150 LAND (KM) 804 742 684 633 589 541 583 710 911 1181 1482 1862 1553 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.1 21.6 23.7 26.1 28.6 31.5 34.6 38.3 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.3 147.8 148.3 148.8 149.2 150.1 151.2 152.1 152.9 153.4 153.7 153.9 153.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -29. -36. -44. -53. -61. -66. -66. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -23. -31. -47. -62. -76. -90.-103.-116.-127.-134. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -20. -32. -42. -61. -76. -89.-100.-111.-122.-133.-139. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.36 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 1.91 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)