* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 37 34 32 30 29 31 33 35 36 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 37 34 32 30 29 31 33 35 36 SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 20 19 18 19 17 16 16 12 10 9 10 SHEAR DIR 57 64 71 75 76 66 76 92 109 118 140 144 173 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 136 137 137 137 138 138 138 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 49 49 48 51 47 49 46 45 44 40 32 24 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -2 0 1 2 4 8 1 0 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 3 2 -3 -11 4 30 40 67 93 106 130 124 123 LAND (KM) 2310 2247 2184 2155 2127 2048 1949 1898 1890 1839 1743 1691 1684 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 133.6 134.2 134.7 135.0 135.2 135.9 136.8 137.3 137.4 137.9 138.8 139.3 139.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 543 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -14. -12. -10. -9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 91.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 2.22 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)