* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 33 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 5 6 7 6 9 8 7 4 6 14 18 SHEAR DIR 77 82 38 45 60 61 98 64 138 235 200 188 204 SST (C) 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 103 102 101 101 102 103 103 103 104 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 500-300 MB RH 31 26 27 23 21 24 26 33 32 30 24 23 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 850 MB VORT 29 15 9 12 10 13 14 32 33 29 13 0 -22 LAND (KM) 921 956 993 1031 1069 1177 1309 1380 1405 1405 1395 1395 1413 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.3 20.8 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 121.8 122.2 122.7 123.2 124.2 125.4 126.1 126.4 126.4 126.2 126.2 126.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 539 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -27 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -6. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -30. -36. -40. -40. -39. -38. -37. -38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -12. -18. -22. -30. -35. -38. -37. -34. -31. -32. -36. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 2.09 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)