* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 52 58 63 67 69 69 67 59 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 52 58 63 67 69 69 67 59 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 10 14 18 19 27 30 39 50 48 39 27 SHEAR DIR 254 240 229 223 234 224 251 251 245 242 261 268 286 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 27.5 26.1 25.1 24.5 24.5 24.9 23.8 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 160 155 135 120 111 106 106 110 102 93 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -56.5 -58.1 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 2 1 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 69 72 72 70 67 65 56 60 54 47 30 24 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 2 0 6 14 9 7 13 0 6 -33 0 850 MB VORT 100 110 113 110 94 107 69 98 55 29 -24 -86 -128 LAND (KM) 1014 1052 1104 1174 1257 1451 1368 1281 1222 1084 978 1059 1371 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.8 24.9 26.2 27.4 30.0 32.3 34.2 35.7 37.2 38.8 40.5 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.4 57.7 58.1 58.4 59.2 59.0 56.7 53.2 50.1 47.8 43.1 36.8 HEAT CONTENT 62 53 48 40 25 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 91 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 27. 32. 35. 36. 36. 32. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. 32. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.0% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)