* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 150 149 145 141 130 116 103 83 63 42 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 150 150 149 145 141 130 116 68 40 31 28 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 13 18 18 21 25 20 30 30 39 31 37 SHEAR DIR 204 190 194 189 197 177 219 221 255 255 260 279 276 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.0 26.7 24.9 24.2 23.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 157 126 110 104 100 96 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.0 -49.4 -49.6 -49.3 -47.7 -48.0 -46.5 -47.1 -47.9 -48.7 -49.0 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 12 10 10 8 10 7 7 2 4 1 500-300 MB RH 51 51 49 48 49 41 39 32 29 32 27 25 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -7 -13 -2 7 5 7 -4 2 -9 3 0 850 MB VORT 92 102 82 82 78 107 67 67 78 67 -14 -30 -56 LAND (KM) 357 381 423 389 346 309 81 -117 -307 -436 -496 -570 -673 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.9 28.4 30.1 31.9 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.5 89.4 90.3 91.2 93.1 94.7 95.8 96.4 96.4 96.1 96.1 96.4 HEAT CONTENT 84 78 54 35 93 36 40 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 571 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 88 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 145 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -20. -36. -53. -70. -86. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -10. -15. -23. -31. -30. -32. -31. -32. -27. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -6. -10. -21. -35. -47. -66. -86.-106.-124.-138. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -5. -9. -20. -34. -47. -67. -87.-108.-126.-140. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.88 Prob of RI= 32.7% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)