* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 72 64 55 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 81 72 64 55 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 25 24 21 28 34 48 51 47 44 40 28 13 SHEAR DIR 242 247 241 226 217 215 218 229 241 255 276 339 319 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.4 24.7 23.1 20.4 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 124 124 123 124 125 120 113 96 68 64 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -54.6 -54.4 -56.0 -57.1 -58.2 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 500-300 MB RH 28 30 30 30 34 36 43 48 45 44 49 51 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 2 0 3 3 11 18 14 1 6 9 -53 18 850 MB VORT 64 48 44 41 35 -4 19 7 -16 -63 -133 -169 -111 LAND (KM) 771 724 680 633 597 586 662 828 1077 1371 1702 1767 1325 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.0 22.7 24.9 27.4 30.2 33.3 36.6 40.4 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 147.5 147.9 148.3 148.8 149.3 150.3 151.3 152.1 152.8 153.2 153.3 153.5 153.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 636 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -29. -37. -45. -53. -61. -65. -66. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -34. -49. -63. -77. -89.-101.-113.-123.-128. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -18. -26. -35. -51. -66. -80. -92.-105.-116.-126.-130. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 2.21 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)