* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 43 39 36 35 36 38 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 43 39 36 35 36 38 39 39 38 SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 19 17 15 17 17 11 11 7 9 10 16 SHEAR DIR 58 61 70 79 79 77 105 105 133 123 145 161 162 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 500-300 MB RH 43 43 41 42 39 42 39 36 32 28 24 25 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 3 3 8 4 4 0 0 -1 -2 2 850 MB VORT 9 -2 -13 -12 6 28 56 79 107 110 122 121 125 LAND (KM) 2218 2157 2096 2051 2007 1952 1877 1822 1778 1716 1641 1600 1559 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 134.4 135.0 135.5 135.9 136.3 136.8 137.5 138.0 138.4 139.0 139.7 140.1 140.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. -11. -12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.03 Scaled RI index= 2.06 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)