* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 4 3 3 7 4 5 5 5 10 9 11 SHEAR DIR 52 30 51 44 63 98 131 89 200 245 217 216 195 SST (C) 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 103 103 103 103 103 105 105 105 105 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 29 25 24 24 25 23 24 28 28 28 22 23 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 26 7 2 6 10 -1 12 15 40 23 16 -13 -14 LAND (KM) 957 993 1031 1072 1114 1191 1284 1361 1401 1401 1369 1369 1401 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.7 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.2 122.6 123.0 123.4 124.1 125.0 125.7 126.1 126.1 125.8 125.8 126.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -21. -26. -28. -28. -27. -27. -27. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -14. -19. -22. -24. -23. -20. -19. -21. -24. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 2.53 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)