* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 50 55 58 61 63 63 59 52 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 50 55 58 61 63 63 59 52 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 24 29 29 27 28 36 43 50 37 37 29 SHEAR DIR 241 227 229 235 232 234 259 244 238 239 260 274 277 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.2 26.0 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.7 24.7 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 151 142 132 119 112 107 106 108 108 102 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -57.5 -58.0 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 1 1 1 1 2 500-300 MB RH 71 67 65 60 59 58 63 58 54 44 40 35 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 5 1 9 17 27 7 6 15 24 -18 -11 3 850 MB VORT 94 97 96 88 92 63 74 80 35 -2 -20 -58 -80 LAND (KM) 1212 1280 1362 1430 1509 1341 1264 1222 1139 1084 1093 1208 1374 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.6 27.9 29.2 30.4 32.6 34.3 35.5 36.5 37.5 38.6 39.3 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.0 57.4 58.1 58.8 58.9 56.9 54.4 51.7 48.7 45.5 42.2 39.0 HEAT CONTENT 39 29 20 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 448 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 81 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 29. 25. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 24. 17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 3.49 Prob of RI= 5.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)