* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 145 143 143 141 140 128 113 95 73 51 31 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 145 143 143 141 140 128 95 50 34 29 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 10 14 13 25 21 29 29 31 33 36 34 SHEAR DIR 227 217 208 218 209 204 237 244 277 268 285 287 294 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 27.5 25.6 24.6 24.0 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 164 164 165 162 135 115 107 103 102 104 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.0 -49.5 -49.2 -48.8 -47.9 -46.9 -47.0 -47.9 -48.5 -49.5 -49.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 11 9 10 6 9 4 7 2 9 5 500-300 MB RH 49 49 50 46 48 43 41 37 38 36 38 36 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 0 3 7 9 11 1 -1 0 -1 2 850 MB VORT 100 79 73 67 78 71 41 43 45 -2 -50 -75 -98 LAND (KM) 401 400 366 311 273 186 -36 -211 -354 -460 -545 -553 -539 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.8 28.1 29.9 31.4 32.8 33.8 34.6 34.7 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.2 90.0 90.9 91.8 93.4 94.7 95.3 95.2 95.0 94.7 94.4 94.2 HEAT CONTENT 83 71 43 90 75 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 630 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 111 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 150 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -23. -39. -57. -73. -87. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -5. -8. -17. -23. -25. -28. -28. -27. -24. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -15. -30. -48. -70. -92.-112.-127.-139. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -4. -5. -17. -32. -50. -72. -94.-114.-129.-140. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 19.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 16.7% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)