* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 69 60 51 43 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 69 60 51 43 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 24 21 31 29 32 43 42 34 34 21 14 8 SHEAR DIR 248 241 225 217 218 209 214 235 246 259 313 355 209 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 26.0 25.8 25.1 23.9 21.9 19.6 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 124 123 123 126 124 117 104 83 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.8 -55.2 -56.2 -57.0 -57.5 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 500-300 MB RH 30 29 31 34 36 37 38 39 47 54 46 41 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 2 6 15 12 2 23 -4 -3 24 -21 5 850 MB VORT 56 47 40 36 22 12 22 -17 -77 -128 -147 -170 -170 LAND (KM) 712 666 626 590 570 599 695 928 1231 1557 1894 1718 1527 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.3 22.0 23.9 26.2 29.1 32.5 35.6 38.5 41.3 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.5 148.9 149.5 150.0 151.2 152.5 153.7 154.7 154.6 153.5 151.5 148.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 678 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -24. -31. -37. -43. -47. -49. -48. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -28. -35. -47. -59. -69. -78. -88. -97.-103.-107. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -20. -29. -37. -50. -62. -73. -82. -92.-100.-106.-109. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 44.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.06 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 1.81 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)