* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 48 47 44 41 40 39 39 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 48 47 44 41 40 39 39 40 39 40 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 17 14 13 17 13 10 7 9 11 13 11 SHEAR DIR 55 61 75 84 74 83 115 132 161 189 195 204 191 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 138 138 137 137 137 136 137 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 43 43 39 40 44 40 42 41 32 24 18 19 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 2 4 8 3 1 0 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -6 -17 -17 2 14 25 64 97 139 125 110 134 132 LAND (KM) 2099 2056 2013 1972 1932 1877 1802 1747 1693 1641 1593 1542 1487 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 135.5 135.9 136.3 136.7 137.0 137.5 138.2 138.7 139.2 139.7 140.2 140.7 141.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 444 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.10 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.11 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 87.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.51 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.22 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.12 Scaled RI index= 2.56 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)