* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 5 1 4 6 7 8 7 13 15 16 12 SHEAR DIR 21 47 99 142 13 110 136 167 212 195 190 183 169 SST (C) 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 102 101 101 102 104 106 107 107 106 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 25 23 24 25 23 24 27 27 30 28 27 29 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 2 -3 5 0 850 MB VORT 18 13 19 23 3 -1 0 29 49 31 26 23 8 LAND (KM) 1000 1038 1076 1119 1162 1238 1307 1367 1406 1406 1367 1367 1406 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.2 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.4 122.8 123.2 123.7 124.1 124.7 125.2 125.6 125.9 125.9 125.6 125.6 125.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 556 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -30 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -27. -30. -30. -29. -30. -30. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -25. -24. -22. -22. -23. -26. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 23.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 71.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.91 Scaled RI index= 2.44 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)