* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 49 55 59 60 62 62 62 58 51 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 45 49 55 59 60 62 62 62 58 51 SHEAR (KTS) 21 25 28 29 29 34 36 47 51 49 45 33 37 SHEAR DIR 222 237 239 237 237 263 255 252 248 271 279 284 288 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.2 26.7 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.4 24.8 24.5 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 141 132 126 116 111 107 106 109 106 100 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.6 -56.9 -58.7 -59.3 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 500-300 MB RH 68 63 60 60 59 59 63 62 54 46 43 34 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 11 17 17 23 10 -11 8 13 20 -39 -9 -10 850 MB VORT 84 71 69 73 66 37 24 26 24 -33 -61 -89 -102 LAND (KM) 1250 1332 1425 1502 1434 1262 1192 1177 1128 1097 1107 1237 1436 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.1 29.4 30.5 31.5 33.5 35.2 36.1 36.7 37.7 39.1 39.8 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.6 58.1 58.6 59.1 59.5 58.6 56.1 53.4 50.7 47.6 44.3 41.1 37.9 HEAT CONTENT 30 19 11 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 536 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 139 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 12. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 25. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 20. 24. 25. 27. 27. 27. 23. 16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.56 Prob of RI= 6.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)