* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 123 121 118 110 96 76 59 42 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 130 125 123 121 118 110 60 37 30 28 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 15 18 25 28 24 33 31 32 31 38 37 SHEAR DIR 235 211 202 207 202 226 229 267 281 272 288 297 303 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 27.8 25.9 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 162 162 165 139 118 110 106 103 102 103 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -50.1 -49.9 -49.1 -47.8 -47.9 -46.4 -47.1 -48.2 -49.0 -49.6 -50.2 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 11 9 10 7 9 5 7 3 5 2 4 500-300 MB RH 49 50 44 43 41 42 39 38 38 33 31 25 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 2 7 6 7 0 0 -2 0 -10 -14 -12 850 MB VORT 83 72 63 72 90 48 57 39 45 -2 -15 -68 -95 LAND (KM) 389 339 289 235 211 60 -187 -335 -424 -478 -521 -538 -559 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.7 29.2 31.2 32.6 33.5 34.0 34.3 34.5 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.1 90.0 90.9 91.6 92.3 93.8 95.2 95.3 94.8 94.7 95.4 95.1 94.0 HEAT CONTENT 67 37 62 59 56 44 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 66 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 150 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -6. -19. -34. -49. -62. -74. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -8. -14. -23. -26. -29. -29. -28. -27. -23. -20. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -11. -19. -32. -52. -69. -87.-104.-117.-128. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -6. -9. -12. -20. -34. -54. -71. -88.-106.-119.-129. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 33.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.06 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 3.68 Prob of RI= 7.9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)