* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 44 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 60 52 44 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 25 30 32 37 44 46 41 36 23 10 3 1 SHEAR DIR 249 237 222 217 216 212 221 233 239 277 301 284 322 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.1 22.5 21.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 123 123 125 126 123 117 106 90 74 64 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -54.2 -55.6 -56.0 -56.6 -57.3 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 28 30 34 35 37 43 43 44 50 44 45 44 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -1 5 12 24 14 17 4 0 12 3 -10 -8 850 MB VORT 46 35 31 17 12 18 0 -31 -77 -111 -152 -162 -138 LAND (KM) 652 601 561 553 561 633 782 1004 1255 1528 1793 1907 1825 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.3 23.1 25.3 27.6 30.1 32.8 35.4 37.8 39.5 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.2 149.8 150.4 150.9 152.2 153.6 154.3 154.9 154.9 154.5 151.6 146.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 699 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -25. -32. -39. -44. -46. -45. -43. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -32. -44. -55. -65. -74. -82. -88. -91. -92. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -18. -26. -34. -47. -58. -68. -77. -85. -90. -92. -94. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.68 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 1.71 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)