* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 51 47 45 43 43 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 51 47 45 43 43 43 43 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 17 15 16 13 8 10 7 7 8 13 14 SHEAR DIR 61 71 82 82 77 89 102 168 201 214 201 192 184 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 135 133 133 136 136 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 40 38 38 41 41 37 41 33 24 18 10 8 9 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 5 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 850 MB VORT -12 -13 -1 11 19 45 81 120 130 118 97 97 80 LAND (KM) 2022 1983 1944 1901 1858 1780 1681 1609 1553 1501 1444 1393 1348 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 136.1 136.5 136.8 137.2 137.6 138.3 139.2 139.9 140.5 141.0 141.5 142.0 142.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 496 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.08 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 2.59 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)