* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 48 54 58 60 61 61 62 60 53 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 48 54 58 60 61 61 62 60 53 SHEAR (KTS) 24 30 28 25 27 28 44 55 53 39 46 34 N/A SHEAR DIR 232 239 240 237 235 255 245 249 262 289 288 284 9999 SST (C) 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.8 26.6 25.7 25.1 25.2 24.4 23.3 22.9 20.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 141 131 127 125 116 111 112 106 99 96 86 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -57.1 -60.1 -60.3 -61.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 8 7 4 1 1 1 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 62 60 61 64 57 58 55 46 35 43 45 54 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 16 15 18 15 3 18 14 -6 -65 -7 12 N/A 850 MB VORT 75 73 75 81 59 85 42 5 -77 -130 -107 -93 N/A LAND (KM) 1351 1426 1509 1469 1382 1238 1098 944 780 782 954 1218 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.4 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.7 36.2 38.2 40.1 41.9 43.5 45.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.4 59.8 58.7 55.8 53.2 49.8 45.9 41.8 37.3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 11 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 548 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 138 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 19. 21. 19. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 26. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 25. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.39 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 36.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.05 Scaled RI index= 3.36 Prob of RI= 4.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)