* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 119 117 114 108 96 78 62 45 32 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 125 121 119 117 114 94 51 35 29 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 15 22 25 21 26 26 27 28 17 15 23 SHEAR DIR 202 203 189 191 202 230 237 281 275 275 285 314 290 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.1 26.2 25.1 25.1 26.1 25.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 162 164 164 143 121 111 111 120 118 110 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.7 -49.6 -47.7 -48.0 -47.2 -46.7 -47.4 -48.4 -49.4 -49.3 -49.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 9 10 10 6 11 5 9 3 7 0 4 500-300 MB RH 48 47 46 44 43 43 34 36 34 27 21 22 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 7 5 9 6 9 2 0 -12 -4 -3 -5 1 850 MB VORT 76 71 77 90 84 50 47 48 9 7 -27 -41 -32 LAND (KM) 345 289 243 206 139 -9 -158 -305 -405 -405 -316 -327 -416 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.4 33.3 33.3 32.5 32.6 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.7 91.5 92.4 93.2 94.2 94.6 94.9 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.9 95.0 HEAT CONTENT 38 57 59 55 46 39 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 624 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 145 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -4. -16. -29. -43. -53. -63. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -24. -26. -25. -24. -20. -14. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -11. -14. -20. -32. -49. -63. -80. -92.-101.-108. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -8. -11. -17. -29. -47. -63. -80. -93.-103.-110. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.10 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 9.9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)