* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 43 36 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 51 43 36 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 30 33 42 40 48 45 40 40 21 15 10 5 SHEAR DIR 233 223 217 219 212 221 233 246 264 316 358 55 119 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.6 25.1 23.9 21.7 20.4 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 123 124 126 126 122 117 104 81 68 64 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -54.9 -55.7 -56.1 -56.5 -57.1 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 500-300 MB RH 30 33 34 36 36 36 40 46 52 47 53 46 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 7 15 24 12 1 12 -4 2 33 -29 -20 0 850 MB VORT 32 16 13 13 8 10 -22 -64 -106 -166 -180 -148 -143 LAND (KM) 607 583 580 571 574 636 832 1029 1263 1554 1932 1883 1619 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 25.8 28.2 30.5 33.0 35.6 38.6 40.4 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 149.2 149.8 150.3 151.0 151.7 152.9 153.9 154.7 155.3 154.7 152.6 149.1 144.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 711 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -32. -40. -46. -48. -49. -49. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -28. -40. -49. -59. -70. -78. -86. -91. -93. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -17. -24. -31. -43. -54. -63. -73. -81. -88. -93. -95. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 63.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.26 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 1.52 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)