* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 55 53 51 49 47 46 45 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 55 53 51 49 47 46 45 44 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 18 18 17 11 11 6 8 9 12 15 16 SHEAR DIR 57 73 78 81 84 97 118 163 190 203 205 203 191 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 136 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 41 39 45 41 39 41 41 35 24 14 11 10 11 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 2 4 6 2 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -2 850 MB VORT -16 -8 -2 6 10 40 72 116 128 109 89 85 69 LAND (KM) 2020 1972 1924 1892 1859 1784 1678 1627 1603 1542 1426 1375 1378 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 136.7 137.1 137.4 137.7 138.4 139.4 139.9 140.1 140.7 141.8 142.3 142.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 546 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.12 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.46 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 2.88 Prob of RI= 7.1% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)