* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FOURTEEN 09/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 51 49 44 40 34 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 51 49 44 40 34 26 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 9 7 8 9 16 16 27 21 20 17 20 SHEAR DIR 57 68 82 86 93 98 121 128 122 129 121 131 133 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 151 148 146 142 137 128 121 116 110 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 1 500-300 MB RH 67 68 67 62 64 56 50 55 56 55 48 42 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -1 0 0 0 1 7 2 4 0 5 4 0 850 MB VORT 62 70 76 80 84 84 86 86 81 54 22 8 13 LAND (KM) 620 633 654 676 703 691 676 711 761 779 807 864 946 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.1 109.7 110.3 110.9 112.1 113.2 114.4 115.7 117.0 118.3 119.4 120.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 314/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 495 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 83 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 19. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 23. 24. 20. 15. 9. 4. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 21. 19. 14. 10. 4. -4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOURTEEN 9/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.27 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.58 Prob of RI= 19.8% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)