* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 44 48 54 57 58 57 56 55 51 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 44 48 54 57 58 57 56 55 51 45 SHEAR (KTS) 29 28 25 33 32 40 57 58 39 37 24 28 N/A SHEAR DIR 240 241 221 235 257 240 243 245 273 273 273 278 9999 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.5 22.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 125 121 117 114 111 110 108 104 100 92 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -55.2 -58.0 -58.4 -59.0 -58.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A 500-300 MB RH 60 60 60 53 53 59 54 45 45 48 55 57 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 14 20 25 13 2 16 23 22 -8 -21 0 -11 N/A 850 MB VORT 66 68 71 41 52 58 4 -45 -119 -104 -117 -121 N/A LAND (KM) 1471 1464 1333 1209 1090 1015 1032 907 852 881 984 1157 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.2 32.2 33.5 34.7 36.5 37.3 38.6 39.7 40.9 42.1 43.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.7 60.4 60.2 59.9 57.5 54.7 51.7 48.8 45.6 42.5 39.0 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 19 CX,CY: -5/ 18 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 93 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 21. 21. 20. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 17. 12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. 16. 10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.37 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.58 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.45 Prob of RI= 5.1% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)