* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 116 113 109 102 87 73 57 41 28 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 118 116 113 109 69 41 31 28 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 21 24 26 20 31 19 28 23 24 24 27 SHEAR DIR 208 206 189 193 217 223 269 286 263 272 279 286 303 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 28.9 27.2 25.8 25.2 25.2 25.7 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 164 165 155 132 117 112 112 116 116 112 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.6 -48.3 -48.5 -48.2 -46.7 -47.2 -47.9 -48.8 -49.5 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 11 11 8 9 7 9 4 6 3 3 0 500-300 MB RH 45 45 46 45 45 44 40 35 33 24 23 26 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 6 12 11 23 9 9 -8 -6 -2 -3 -3 0 850 MB VORT 69 78 82 68 49 52 16 36 -4 -12 -44 -28 -72 LAND (KM) 289 231 207 144 73 -80 -225 -338 -394 -394 -349 -349 -393 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.4 29.1 30.4 31.7 32.7 33.2 33.2 32.8 32.8 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.5 92.2 92.9 93.6 94.5 94.7 94.9 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.9 94.9 HEAT CONTENT 57 57 56 46 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 125 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -5. -17. -30. -42. -53. -62. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -11. -15. -21. -25. -24. -22. -21. -18. -14. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -12. -20. -34. -48. -63. -78. -90.-101.-111. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -33. -47. -63. -79. -92.-103.-112. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.98 Scaled RI index= 4.27 Prob of RI= 15.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)