* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 34 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 34 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 33 39 39 42 45 44 44 37 24 15 14 14 SHEAR DIR 226 225 220 214 214 227 239 241 254 281 301 311 308 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.6 23.0 21.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 124 125 127 127 124 119 112 95 80 71 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -56.0 -56.3 -57.6 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 30 32 34 32 32 35 39 50 49 46 43 45 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 8 15 11 18 15 -6 3 0 9 -16 -3 -11 850 MB VORT 22 9 13 13 13 -7 -28 -63 -104 -149 -164 -138 -131 LAND (KM) 598 577 568 575 584 680 820 972 1181 1423 1711 1945 1877 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.0 24.8 26.6 28.6 30.5 32.6 34.7 37.0 38.7 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 149.6 150.3 150.9 151.6 152.3 153.6 155.1 156.2 156.8 156.1 154.4 152.5 150.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 683 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -22. -30. -39. -45. -48. -49. -51. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -34. -43. -53. -64. -72. -79. -83. -87. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -21. -26. -37. -46. -56. -66. -74. -80. -84. -89. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 1.50 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)