* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 46 44 40 39 39 40 40 39 38 36 V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 46 44 40 39 39 40 40 39 38 36 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 20 19 14 6 3 4 9 12 15 11 14 SHEAR DIR 67 58 63 78 97 91 174 207 167 178 197 194 181 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 135 135 133 133 133 135 135 131 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 42 44 39 40 42 43 41 27 21 13 11 10 9 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 7 6 0 0 0 0 -3 3 -1 -5 850 MB VORT 0 0 -3 11 32 43 96 125 132 127 102 77 60 LAND (KM) 1996 1963 1931 1886 1842 1757 1681 1609 1540 1437 1305 1230 1183 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.3 136.6 136.9 137.3 137.7 138.5 139.2 139.9 140.6 141.6 142.8 143.5 143.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 585 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.02 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 79.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.43 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 2.03 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)