* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FOURTEEN 09/23/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 52 54 54 49 44 39 32 25 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 52 54 54 49 44 39 32 25 SHEAR (KTS) 15 9 9 8 9 14 19 22 27 18 20 18 21 SHEAR DIR 67 82 78 96 88 93 127 113 125 126 126 128 140 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.3 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 150 148 145 141 135 127 119 113 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 68 67 65 64 62 53 55 55 60 51 46 40 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 2 0 4 0 0 850 MB VORT 67 73 77 81 85 93 85 93 78 33 18 7 18 LAND (KM) 646 671 702 734 760 728 734 768 803 819 872 943 1003 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.6 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.6 110.2 110.9 111.5 112.8 113.9 115.1 116.3 117.6 119.1 120.3 121.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 491 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 23. 22. 17. 12. 5. -1. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 19. 14. 9. 4. -3. -10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FOURTEEN 9/23/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.78 Prob of RI= 23.5% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)