* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 45 49 52 54 53 53 54 53 47 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 45 49 52 54 53 53 54 53 47 SHEAR (KTS) 24 23 24 23 26 44 57 60 51 52 37 36 N/A SHEAR DIR 225 221 222 241 233 242 240 253 277 302 299 305 9999 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.4 25.2 23.9 23.6 21.5 19.9 18.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 127 125 123 114 112 102 100 90 84 80 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -56.0 -56.8 -59.3 -60.0 -60.7 -59.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 500-300 MB RH 52 49 44 46 50 58 59 52 52 44 53 57 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 13 12 5 8 7 19 47 -32 -21 32 -36 N/A 850 MB VORT 82 85 67 74 86 47 -13 -60 -110 -133 -110 -138 N/A LAND (KM) 1396 1315 1205 1151 1090 1030 911 784 925 1222 1537 1348 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.8 32.8 33.5 34.1 35.9 38.5 40.6 42.5 44.2 45.8 47.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.3 62.6 62.3 61.9 58.6 53.0 48.2 43.0 37.8 32.8 27.7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 18 CX,CY: -13/ 12 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 889 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 26. 28. 27. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 20. 20. 21. 18. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 18. 20. 18. 12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 92.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.60 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 2.96 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)