* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 116 112 109 99 85 74 56 40 27 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 118 116 112 109 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 20 23 26 23 25 20 15 27 25 14 24 23 SHEAR DIR 219 198 191 216 229 248 304 254 269 265 268 269 277 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.2 26.8 25.8 25.3 25.3 25.8 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 165 164 145 127 117 113 113 117 116 113 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.5 -48.8 -48.2 -47.6 -46.9 -47.3 -48.2 -49.4 -49.3 -49.7 -49.8 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 8 6 11 6 12 1 5 0 3 0 500-300 MB RH 43 43 45 43 42 37 33 31 26 14 12 19 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 8 15 16 5 -2 -6 -2 -13 -3 -3 2 0 850 MB VORT 74 84 71 55 43 44 42 12 1 -27 -26 -21 43 LAND (KM) 232 218 178 96 1 -155 -253 -335 -387 -386 -335 -346 -386 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.9 29.7 31.0 31.9 32.7 33.2 33.2 32.7 32.8 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.3 93.0 93.6 94.2 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.4 94.3 94.7 94.7 94.3 HEAT CONTENT 57 57 48 46 38 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 635 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -8. -20. -32. -44. -54. -63. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -7. -12. -17. -23. -25. -21. -21. -19. -16. -12. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -37. -47. -64. -79. -91.-101.-110. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -8. -11. -21. -35. -46. -64. -80. -93.-103.-111. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.42 Prob of RI= 17.4% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)