* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 51 56 59 60 62 61 59 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 51 56 59 60 62 61 59 55 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 21 18 19 25 27 30 25 18 15 11 17 SHEAR DIR 205 193 199 208 203 247 275 273 304 331 327 287 292 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 146 142 137 132 127 127 124 120 114 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 44 46 46 45 47 44 47 41 40 41 41 42 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 8 5 1 0 0 10 -16 18 -5 -13 -12 -4 850 MB VORT 130 143 124 105 85 73 60 49 20 4 -27 -44 -56 LAND (KM) 971 1024 1077 1157 1238 1374 1468 1479 1517 1482 1436 1378 1353 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.6 29.2 30.2 30.9 31.1 30.9 31.3 31.9 32.9 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.8 63.6 63.4 63.0 62.6 61.6 60.5 59.4 58.9 58.7 58.3 57.3 55.3 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 25 21 17 11 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 652 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. 31. 29. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 11.9% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)