* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 38 38 41 46 46 43 43 26 19 11 8 21 SHEAR DIR 223 227 219 217 227 239 251 259 293 315 4 347 334 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.5 24.9 23.9 22.5 21.2 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 125 126 126 125 121 115 104 90 76 67 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.9 -55.1 -55.9 -56.6 -56.9 -57.0 -57.7 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 30 35 33 34 35 39 40 45 46 44 43 45 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 11 9 13 2 6 8 -8 13 -30 -7 0 -12 850 MB VORT 3 1 6 13 -2 -25 -58 -93 -121 -151 -152 -144 -151 LAND (KM) 619 605 606 618 647 762 910 1089 1323 1560 1808 1970 1888 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.2 23.9 24.8 25.6 27.4 29.4 31.4 33.6 35.6 37.5 39.1 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.4 151.1 151.8 152.4 153.6 154.9 155.5 155.4 154.5 152.9 150.8 148.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -29. -37. -42. -45. -45. -48. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -29. -38. -49. -60. -69. -76. -79. -86. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -16. -21. -30. -39. -50. -60. -67. -73. -78. -86. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.37 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 1.48 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)