* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 46 45 45 44 43 42 41 40 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 46 45 45 44 43 42 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 19 14 10 6 3 7 12 16 13 16 13 SHEAR DIR 60 62 78 97 107 125 138 161 163 173 194 156 152 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 137 136 137 138 139 139 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 43 39 39 43 46 42 35 24 19 15 12 11 10 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 3 7 7 3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -4 -2 850 MB VORT 0 -3 8 28 31 63 114 133 121 113 82 52 36 LAND (KM) 1913 1882 1851 1825 1799 1713 1624 1575 1551 1484 1353 1291 1261 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 137.1 137.4 137.7 138.0 138.2 139.0 139.9 140.4 140.7 141.4 142.7 143.4 143.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 499 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.12 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.08 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.54 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 2.40 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)