* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/23/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 53 52 48 43 37 31 24 16 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 53 52 48 43 37 31 24 16 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 11 13 14 21 22 28 21 24 20 22 19 SHEAR DIR 81 72 90 91 98 116 117 114 119 119 123 120 140 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.2 24.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 150 147 144 139 131 124 118 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 68 65 65 64 58 52 54 54 55 49 50 43 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 0 1 0 4 2 4 2 3 0 2 2 850 MB VORT 88 87 80 82 83 84 75 76 52 25 0 -1 19 LAND (KM) 629 654 683 717 719 691 703 736 767 800 858 932 983 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.8 110.3 111.0 111.6 112.9 114.0 115.2 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.3 121.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 496 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 79 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 18. 17. 13. 7. 0. -7. -15. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 8. 3. -3. -9. -16. -24. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/23/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.53 Prob of RI= 19.0% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)