* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 103 100 96 84 69 55 43 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 106 103 78 57 36 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 23 22 26 28 24 26 22 23 26 28 31 SHEAR DIR 192 199 219 216 220 271 282 272 282 283 289 292 261 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.2 26.1 24.9 24.7 25.2 25.3 24.6 24.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 159 145 120 110 108 112 113 107 108 112 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -49.0 -48.4 -48.0 -47.3 -47.7 -48.3 -49.4 -49.6 -49.7 -49.9 -50.3 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 8 6 10 7 9 6 8 5 5 1 4 500-300 MB RH 44 44 47 44 41 38 38 36 29 21 21 31 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 6 18 21 26 -2 -7 0 -4 -3 -9 -1 3 850 MB VORT 74 63 38 27 56 11 39 -4 -2 -40 -15 -28 9 LAND (KM) 200 121 43 -51 -145 -313 -446 -467 -405 -395 -478 -467 -405 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.0 32.5 33.8 34.0 33.4 33.3 34.1 34.0 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.9 93.4 94.0 94.5 94.7 93.8 93.6 94.0 94.1 93.5 93.6 94.0 HEAT CONTENT 53 44 40 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 89 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -3. -12. -24. -35. -46. -55. -62. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -7. -11. -14. -21. -23. -21. -19. -16. -14. -12. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -14. -26. -40. -54. -66. -78. -89. -99.-105. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -10. -14. -26. -41. -55. -67. -80. -91.-100.-107. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 3.82 Prob of RI= 9.5% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)