* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 35 41 45 44 47 44 39 29 22 17 18 17 SHEAR DIR 230 220 215 225 229 237 242 260 280 298 324 333 24 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 125 127 129 131 131 128 125 124 121 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -54.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 30 30 28 27 28 33 38 39 41 36 39 35 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 10 5 -5 15 -6 19 0 -20 -6 -5 -15 -10 850 MB VORT 9 9 9 -4 -14 -28 -60 -95 -133 -160 -170 -184 -164 LAND (KM) 552 531 525 502 501 541 584 713 878 1022 1147 1304 1461 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.9 27.1 28.6 30.1 31.3 32.2 33.5 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 150.4 151.1 151.8 152.7 153.5 155.3 157.2 158.7 159.9 161.1 162.5 163.2 163.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 687 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 61 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -22. -31. -36. -39. -42. -45. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -16. -14. -12. -9. -6. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -18. -25. -32. -40. -47. -52. -56. -58. -61. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -15. -18. -24. -30. -37. -43. -46. -49. -52. -58. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 89.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 1.56 Prob of RI= 1.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)