* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 45 44 44 44 45 46 46 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 45 44 44 44 45 46 46 46 44 43 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 14 10 6 3 4 1 4 14 15 25 21 SHEAR DIR 62 71 90 109 93 43 2 326 149 180 173 156 158 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 136 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 500-300 MB RH 37 38 40 45 45 36 30 28 26 29 32 31 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 -1 0 8 0 6 850 MB VORT -7 -2 9 15 31 69 95 122 121 121 108 86 41 LAND (KM) 1867 1834 1802 1774 1747 1703 1662 1641 1621 1600 1559 1538 1518 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 137.6 137.9 138.2 138.5 138.7 139.1 139.5 139.7 139.9 140.1 140.5 140.7 140.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.32 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 2.53 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)