* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * NORMA 09/23/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 51 51 49 46 41 36 29 23 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 51 51 49 46 41 36 29 23 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 18 19 23 18 11 11 SHEAR DIR 54 58 70 86 91 112 110 120 116 130 146 141 98 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.1 25.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 150 149 147 144 141 136 127 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 64 65 63 62 56 55 57 62 65 56 41 36 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 0 0 1 0 4 2 6 0 4 0 -3 850 MB VORT 60 59 56 57 64 67 73 49 32 14 19 30 48 LAND (KM) 707 703 700 705 700 631 573 537 522 532 508 543 609 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 21.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.3 110.5 110.9 111.2 111.9 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.6 115.5 116.5 117.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 476 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 79 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 13. 8. 1. -6. -13. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -4. -9. -16. -22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NORMA 9/23/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.27 Prob of RI= 14.1% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)