* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/24/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 105 102 97 83 69 53 40 26 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 107 85 62 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 23 19 25 26 21 27 21 20 23 20 28 SHEAR DIR 202 213 213 212 233 287 284 281 284 298 298 301 262 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.4 27.2 25.3 24.8 24.8 25.1 25.1 24.8 24.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 148 132 113 109 109 111 111 109 109 112 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.3 -48.2 -47.3 -47.4 -47.9 -48.6 -49.5 -49.4 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 6 9 9 4 11 4 7 2 5 1 8 500-300 MB RH 44 47 45 45 43 42 39 36 29 21 23 22 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 15 27 17 8 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 3 850 MB VORT 60 49 35 56 26 17 1 -6 -25 -41 -31 -8 -29 LAND (KM) 122 53 -30 -126 -221 -386 -442 -442 -408 -408 -442 -442 -407 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.3 30.0 30.9 31.7 33.2 33.7 33.7 33.4 33.4 33.7 33.7 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.5 94.1 94.3 94.4 94.3 94.4 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.4 94.4 94.2 HEAT CONTENT 45 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 92 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -6. -15. -27. -38. -49. -57. -65. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -13. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -12. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -14. -28. -42. -57. -70. -83. -93.-102.-108. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -8. -13. -27. -41. -57. -70. -84. -95.-104.-110. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/24/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.94 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)